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Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links
16 references·16 citing·38 second hopsampled
Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links (2013)Predicting stock returns: A regime-switch…The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks (2009)The Impact of Uncertainty Sho…Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy (2009)Out-of-Sample Equity Premium …Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia (2009)Expected Stock Returns and Va…The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks (2007)The Impact of Uncertainty Sho…Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average? (2007)Predicting Excess Stock Retur…A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction (2007)A Comprehensive Look at The E…Stock Return Predictability: Is it There? (2006)Stock Return Predictability: …Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century* (2006)Rare Disasters and Asset Mark…Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models (2006)Approximately normal tests fo…Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns (2001)Consumption, Aggregate Wealth…Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable (2000)Investing for the Long Run wh…State-Space Models with Regime Switching (1999)State-Space Models with Regim…By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior (1999)By Force of Habit: A Consumpt…The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums (1991)The Variation of Economic Ris…Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds (1989)Business conditions and expec…An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (1973)An Intertemporal Capital Asse…Forecasting crude oil prices: A scaled PCA approach (2021)Forecasting crude oil prices:…Which uncertainty is powerful to forecast crude oil market volatility? New evidence (2020)Which uncertainty is powerful…New technical indicators and stock returns predictability (2020)New technical indicators and …Forecasting stock market returns: New technical indicators and two-step economic constraint method (2020)Forecasting stock market retu…Forecasting global equity market volatilities (2020)Forecasting global equity mar…Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility (2020)Efficient predictability of s…Time-varying energy and stock market integration in Asia (2019)Time-varying energy and stock…Forecasting stock market volatility: The role of technical variables (2019)Forecasting stock market vola…Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence (2019)Economic policy uncertainty a…Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: new evidence (2019)Economic policy uncertainty a…Economic constraints and stock return predictability: A new approach (2019)Economic constraints and stoc…Oil and the short-term predictability of stock return volatility (2018)Oil and the short-term predic…Intraday momentum and stock return predictability: Evidence from China (2018)Intraday momentum and stock r…Hidden Markov Model for Stock Trading (2018)Hidden Markov Model for Stock…Forecasting the prices of crude oil: An iterated combination approach (2018)Forecasting the prices of cru…Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations (2016)Optimal Portfolio Choice Unde…Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case (1969)The Econometrics of Financial Markets (1997)The Econometrics of Financial Markets (2012)Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns (2014)Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning (2020)The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing (1976)The relationship between return and market value of common stocks (1981)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Industry costs of equity (1997)Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects (2002)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach (1991)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors (1988)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Presidential Address: Discount Rates (2011)Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation (1982)Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy (2005)Measuring Uncertainty (2015)Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty* (2016)Measuring Geopolitical Risk (2022)Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy (1978)Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework (1989)Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth (2013)Measuring Systemic Risk (2016)American Economic Review (2019)Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations (1982)Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors (1988)Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models (1991)The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies (2011)Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes (2002)Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns (2014)Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment (2015)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles (2000)Relative Income, Happiness, and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles (2008)
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References

  • 1973An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model6,557 cited
  • 2009The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks5,941 cited
  • 1999By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior5,088 cited
  • 2007A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction3,984 cited
  • 1989Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds3,934 cited
  • 2007Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?2,916 cited
  • 2006Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models2,513 cited
  • 2006Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century*2,324 cited
  • 2001Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns2,187 cited
  • 2007The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks2,111 cited
  • 2009Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia1,776 cited
  • 1991The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums1,740 cited
  • 2009Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy1,684 cited
  • 2000Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable1,372 cited
  • 1999State-Space Models with Regime Switching1,304 cited

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  • 2006Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?1,295 cited
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