An empirical analysis of Fiji's import demand function

Seema Narayan · Paresh Kumar Narayan

212 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Economic Studies

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Global trade and economics Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to estimate a disaggregated import demand model for Fiji using relative prices, total consumption, investment expenditure and export expenditure variables for the period 1970 to 2000. Design/methodology/approach - The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration to test for a long run relationship is used, while the autoregressive distributed lag model is used to estimate short run and long run elasticities. These methodologies are shown to perform well in small sample sizes, particularly given that the bounds F-test critical values for small sample sizes generated by Narayan in 2004 and 2005 are used. Findings - Amongst the key results it is found: a long run cointegration relationship among the variables when import demand is the dependent variable; and import demand to be inelastic and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level with respect to all the explanatory variables in both the long-run and the short-run. Originality/value - The disaggregated import demand model estimated here provides a complete picture of the determinants of Fiji's imports. This model can be used by Fijian policy makers to draw pertinent policies and forecast import demand for Fiji.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 2001Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships 1988Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors 1990MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 1995Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models 2012An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis 2005The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests 1998Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework

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