Unit Roots and British Industrial Growth, 1923–92

Abstract

The statistical properties and historical characteristics of British industrial production are examined. Since 1923 production appears to follow a segmented trend stationary process. Prior historical information and recursive searching are used to identify discontinuities in 1973 and 1979. The wartime shift to fuller employment was accompanied by a productivity crash, and trend industrial growth changed little. The major shift in production trend was at the time of the 1973 oil shock. Discontinuity around 1979 took the form of a crash, and accelerating productivity contributed to industrial employment collapsing to levels not experienced since the nineteenth century.

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