L'émergence de l'Asie en développement menace-t-elle l'emploi en France ?

Abstract

Is trade with developing countries in Asia a threat to employment in France ? Catherine Mathieu, Henri Sterdyniak Growth rates have been particularly high in south-east Asian developing countries for the last two decades (averaging 7 %), as compared to those of the rest of the world. Asian dynamic economies are sometimes accused to be a cause for the low growth rates in Europe, and some other times considered as an opportunity for industrial countries to export to these areas. Even though trade between Europe and developing countries in Asia has developed over this period, it stills represents a very small part of European imports : imports from this area only account for 1,4 % of the EC GDP. However these imports mainly consist in low price commodities, which means that they represent a more important part of the European production than they seem to. But, besides, low import prices also mean lower inflation rates, thus allowing increases of the purchasing power in the EC. Developing countries in Asia have external trade surpluses both with the EC and the USA, but no global surplus since they are in deficit with Japan. There are only few european direct investment inflows to developing countries in Asia, European firms generally opting for contracts with local firms. The undervaluation of these industrializing countries currencies, as compared to that of the purchasing power parities, reflects both economic underdeveloped economies and export-oriented policies. This strategy has revealed sucessful. It allows Asian economic partners to import low price products and to export investment goods. Yet, the emergence of this area has entailed massive job destructions in several sectors of the French industry. A simulation made with the OFCE-Mosaique macroeconomic model indicates that, depending on the assumptions made, from 190 000 up to 230 000 jobs have been lost in France, because of the increase of Asian industrial exports all over the world (including French imports). Imports from low wages areas induce unskilled workers dismissals, an increase in social inequalities, and in the number of the unemployed in developed countries if no redistribution takes place. However, taxing imports from these countries would be selfishness and has no justification. Europe should find a way to help developing countries to grow, meanwhile having sustantial internal growth rates again. This requires more active economic policies (lower interest rates and expansionary policies), a fiscal reform to compensate for the gaps between social and private labour costs, and redistribution in favour of the workers hit by imports from low wages countries.

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