Article2014

Study of the Stability of Earned Value Management Forecasting

32 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Construction Engineering and Management

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Construction Project Management and Performance Forecasting Techniques and Applications Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling

Abstract

In this paper, the authors focus on the stability of earned value management (EVM) forecasting methods. The contribution is threefold. First of all, a new criterion to measure stability that does not suffer from the disadvantages of the historically employed concept is proposed. Second, the stability of time and cost forecasting methods is compared and contrasted by means of a computational experiment on a topologically diverse data set. Throughout these experiments, the forecasting accuracy is reported as well, facilitating a trade-off between accuracy and stability. Finally, it is shown show that the novel stability metric can be used in practical environments using two real-life projects. The conclusions of this empirical validation are found to be largely in line with the computational results.

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References

1977Activity networks: Project planning and control by network models 2003Earned value in project management 2003Earned Value Project Management Method and Extensions 2005A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics 2003RanGen: A Random Network Generator for Activity-on-the-Node Networks 2007An evaluation of the adequacy of project network generators with systematically sampled networks 2006A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration 2004Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Performance Using Stochastic S Curves

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