PESSIMISM‐OPTIMISM AND RISK TAKING IN INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP CONTEXTS1

Abstract

ABSTRACT Choice‐dilemmas items were administered with the customary risk‐taking (R) format (minimal acceptable odds to warrant recommendation of the desirable risky alternative) and with a pessimism‐optimism (P) format (estimation of the actual “real‐world” probability of success of the desirable risky alternative). Following individual testing to establish baseline levels, subjects were randomly assigned to either an R‐P or P‐R treatment. In the former, discussion to consensus was focused on the R dimension, and subsequent P judgments were made privately; in the latter, discussion to consensus was focused on the P dimension, and subsequent R judgments were made privately. Results indicated that the link between R and P was asymmetrical. The risky shift was produced only when discussion was oriented along the R dimension. In contrast, pessimistic shifts were obtained following both R and P discussions. Group‐induced pessimism was attributed to pooling or heightened realization of the “things that might go wrong” in pursuing a risky course of action.

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