Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a framework

Abstract

Socio-technological transformations are difficult to achieve. Perceived uncertainties that hinder the innovation decisions of involved actors play a key role in this process. Determining how perceived uncertainties differ between types of actors and between transformation phases (pre-development, take-off, acceleration, stabilisation) can provide essential insights for managing such transformations. This article aims at presenting a framework for analysing the role of uncertainties in socio-technological transformations. In this framework, we classify uncertainties according to their source (technology, resources, competitors, suppliers, consumers, politics), nature (knowledge, variability) and level (low to high) and relate this uncertainty typology to the different transformation phases and involved actors. Finally, we discuss implications for policy.

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