Is the Pace of Social Change Accelerating?

Abstract

Commentators frequently observe that the pace of social change accelerated during the 20th century. Processes of industrialization, demographic change, and human-induced environmental change all occurred more rapidly at the end of the century than they did at the beginning. While claims about accelerating social change abound, few studies attempt to explain it. This article tries to do so through a quantitative analysis of the changing pace of fertility declines over the past two centuries. It outlines two possible explanations for the acceleration: a social integration thesis which emphasizes our growing interconnectivity; and a ‘latecomer effect’ which attributes the accelerated processes to political efforts by elites in poorer countries who want to ‘catch up’ with more affluent countries. An empirical analysis of fertility declines provides support for both explanations. Increased social integration through the spread of common languages may have facilitated the transmission of new norms about fertility, and the creation of elite initiated family planning programs after the Second World War expanded access to contraceptives.!

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