Does Redistricting Aimed to Help Blacks Necessarily Help Republicans?

Abstract

We review the racial and partisan consequences of eleven plans for redistricting the South Carolina Senate proposed after 1980 Census data became available. The plans were offered by a variety of groups including blacks, white Democrats, Republicans, and redistricting experts retained by the U.S. Department of Justice. We use correlations and other summary statistics derived from a data base including both census and electoral data in which census-to-precinct equivalences have been established to test the hypothesis that plans which advantage blacks also can be expected to advantage Republicans. Having found evidence which strongly supports the hypothesis, we evaluate three competing explanations for its predictive power.

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