Choosing the Regime: Macroeconomic Effects of UK Entry into EMU

Ray J Barrell · Karen Dury

24 citations0/0 files storedJCMS Journal of Common Market Studies

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European Monetary and Fiscal Policies Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

The UK's decision on EMU membership depends in part on its effects on the economy. The UK targets inflation, and this involves some ‘price level drift’, whilst the ECB emphasizes price stability and would plan to reverse the drift in the price level caused by external shocks such as an increase in the oil price. We discuss the foundations of the ECB policy in German Ordoliberalism. The regimes are then compared over the future using a large macro model (NiGEM) which includes descriptions of all the European economies. It is repeatedly subject to historically representative shocks. The effects of these shocks are compared with the UK in and out of EMU.

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References

1997Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets 2000Open-Economy Inflation Targeting 1998Forecasting Economic Time Series 1999The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank 1997Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth Within Europe 1993Evaluating policy regimes : new research in empirical macroeconomics 1999Challenges for monetary policy : new and old 2000Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model

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