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The main aim of the present study was to test a model of selection into long-term unemployment obtained for a sample of 36-year-old Finns (Kokko, Pulkkinen, & Puustinen, 2000) to see whether it similarly explained long-term unemployment among 26- to 27-year-old Finns and Swedes. The participants were drawn from two ongoing longitudinal studies: the Jyväskylä Longitudinal Study of Personality and Social Development (conducted in Finland) and the Individual Development and Adaptation study (conducted in Sweden). At both ages, that is 36 and 26–27, low education was related to long-term unemployment, and explained by personality characteristics in middle childhood, such as low self-control of emotions or conduct problems, and behavioural inhibition or timidity. However, while low self-control of emotions additionally explained long-term unemployment among the 36-year-olds directly, in both the young samples personality characteristics showed only indirect effects through poor educational attainment. At age 26–27, childhood personality characteristics explained selection onto an educational track rather than selection into long-term unemployment, and length of education explained duration of unemployment.
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