Aggregate Supply, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in Ireland: A Macrosectoral Analysis.

Abstract

A study of the type we have undertaken here incurs an enormous debt of gratitude to a very large number of persons.Our first expression of this must be to the authors of the extensive range of published and unpublished studies on the Irish economy and its various aspects.Because of the numbers involved the reference list citation has to suffice as an inadequate expression of the fact that whatever little we have added to Irish economic studies by way of systematising the analysis within a framework of the economy as a whole, has only been possible due to this stock of ideas, insights and results.Most of these papers and boo ks belong to what, without implying anything about chronological seniority, might be termed a third "generation" of Irish economists.And studies by two previous "generations" were important in stimulating our interests and approaches even if they did not always impinge directly on the sectoral structure followed here.The "middle generation" is represented by three books in particular: David O'Mahony, The Irish Economy (1964Economy ( , 1967)), K.A. Kennedy and B.R. Dowling, Economic Growth in Ireland (1975), and N.J.Gibson andJ.E.Spencer (editors), Economic Activity in Ireland (1977).Each of these in their own way, in terms of what they achieved as well as what they did not attempt, influenced our approach and provided a rich source of ideas and information.In some ways what we have attempted, in this and a subsequent study, is merely a conceptual and operational systematisation of the broader aspects of these books.But they also serve as a constant reminder of the insights and detail that are lost in following the approach we have taken.The "first generation"--both chronologically in his case, as well as in terms of pioneering work on the Irish economy --is the late R.C. Geary.His early work on modelling the Irish economy, in particular his Harrodian model of 1963/64, was an important study for us and still is a fresh source of ideas about the whole method of modelling the economy.From a selfish viewpoint, anyone who has benefited, as has been our privilege, from the detailed, demanding and encouraging reader's reports, which Roy Geary mysteriously always found time to provide, will appreciate our great loss that not being able to avail of his comments has meant.It need hardly be mentioned here that this is minor compared to his loss to Irish economic studies.While we can expect in due course that his life and work will be suitably remembered we would like to dedicate this study to his memory as a token of our debt for the encouragement and help which he unselfishly and unhesitatingly gave on every occasion.Another related study which should be mentioned at this stage, while hastening to note the author's youthfulness, is B.M. Walsh, An Econometric Model of Ireland 1944Ireland -1962Ireland (1966)), which was the first large scale macroeconometric analysis of the type we have undertaken here and can be seen to have been the first attempt at opening up the line started by Roy Geary.We were very lucky in having a large number of readers who endured the entire first draft and who very kindly gave us the benefit of their knowledge and feelings.The internal readers of the ESRI, Denis Conniffe and Joe Durkan, are very largely responsible for whatever degree of readability this study may have as well as for many major and minor v improvements in the content.John FitzGerald and Tony Murphy of the Department of Finance took us to task on every nook and cranny.

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