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Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts
5 references·16 citing·48 second hop
Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts (1999)Rational Bias in Macroeconomic ForecastsBusiness Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting (1993)Business Cycles, Indicators, …Herd Behavior and Investment (1988)Herd Behavior and InvestmentConsensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction (1987)Consensus and Uncertainty in …The Formation of Inflationary Expectations (1981)The Formation of Inflationary…Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements (1961)Rational Expectations and the…Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts (2021)Partisan Professionals: Evide…Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts (2018)Partisan Professionals: Evide…Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls (2016)Distilling the Wisdom of Crow…Analysts’ Forecasts and Asset Pricing: A Survey (2016)Analysts’ Forecasts and Asset…Measuring Inflation Expectations (2013)Measuring Inflation Expectati…The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters (2012)The Role of Media for Inflati…Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts (2010)Information Rigidity and the …Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7 (2010)Accuracy, unbiasedness and ef…Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model (2008)Evolution of forecast disagre…Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal’s panel of economists (2007)Professional forecasts of int…Bias in macroeconomic forecasts (2007)Bias in macroeconomic forecas…The strategy of professional forecasting☆ (2006)The strategy of professional …Nationalism in Winter Sports Judging and Its Lessons for Organizational Decision Making (2006)Nationalism in Winter Sports …Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions (2004)Optimal forecast combinations…The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting (2003)The Use and Abuse of Real-Tim…Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation (1999)Survey Measures of Expected U…The General Theory of Employment (1937)Network externalities, competition, and compatibility (1985)Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers (1986)The impact of institutional trading on stock prices (1992)The Limits of Arbitrage (1995)The Categorical Imperative: Securities Analysts and the Illegitimacy Discount (1999)Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis (1980)The Review of Economics and Statistics (1997)Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations (2011)Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts (2011)Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis? 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this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1961Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements5,639 cited
  • 1988Herd Behavior and Investment2,815 cited
  • 1993Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting364 cited
  • 1987Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction361 cited
  • 1981The Formation of Inflationary Expectations247 cited

Cited by

  • 2006The strategy of professional forecasting☆320 cited
  • 1999Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation296 cited
  • 2016Analysts’ Forecasts and Asset Pricing: A Survey241 cited
  • 2003The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting233 cited
  • 2021Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts196 cited
  • 2004Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions185 cited
  • 2016Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls175 cited
  • 2013Measuring Inflation Expectations162 cited
  • 2008Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model157 cited
  • 2010Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts140 cited

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2007
Bias in macroeconomic forecasts
131 cited
  • 2010Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7124 cited
  • 2006Nationalism in Winter Sports Judging and Its Lessons for Organizational Decision Making120 cited
  • 2018Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts103 cited
  • 2012The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters99 cited
  • 2007Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal’s panel of economists97 cited