Early Retirement Among RNs: Estimating the Size of the Problem in Canada

Abstract

Background: Many health human resource planners have warned that Canada, like much of the industrialized world, is facing a nursing shortage.In Canada, nearly one-third of registered nurses (RNs) in the workforce are aged 50 years or older, and will soon reach the typical retirement age of 65 years.Research also indicates that an increasing proportion of RNs are retiring early, many by age 56.This paper examines the impact of RN retirement and death on the future RN supply.Design: A cohort projection model was developed to estimate the number of RN losses due to retirement or death using data from the RNs Database (RNDB) at the Canadian Institute for Health Information and vital statistics data from Statistics Canada for the period 1997-2001.Population: RNs who were employed in nursing in Canada in 2001 in the first six months of annual registration.Methods: The numbers of RNs that would be lost to retirement or death are estimated under three different sets of circumstances: (1) all RNs working to a maximum age of 65 (i.e., retirement at age 65 as a best case scenario); (2) all RNs working to a maximum age of 55 (i.e., retirement at age 55 as a worst case scenario); (3) RN losses when observed retirement rates are reduced, assuming a maximum work age of 65.Separate estimates are made for six regions of Canada (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba/Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia), for all of Canada (including territories) and for four employment sectors (hospital, long-term care, community, and other employment).A method for examining the distribution of the proportionate losses among regions or employment sectors was also devised (i.e., the index ratio).Results: If all 2001 RNs were to continue working to age 65, Canada is projected to lose 29,746 RNs aged 50 or older to retirement or death by 2006, representing 13% of the RN workforce in 2001.Quebec has the highest proportionate loss, 16% of its 2001 workforce.If all RNs were to retire at age 55, Canada is expected to lose 64,248 RNs or 28% of the 2001 RN workforce by 2006.If retention strategies could be implemented to mitigate the current observed rates of retirement, the estimated loss of RNs retiring prematurely could be reduced by 53%.This analysis suggests that effective retention incentives would most benefit Quebec, potentially retaining 66% of possible losses to retirement by 2006.Interpretation: The results of this analysis highlight the importance of identifying effective retention strategies as a tool for health human resource planners.Implementation of retention strategies targeted to senior nurses is critical to sustaining the experienced RN workforce and to the efficient use of health human resources. BACKGROUNDMany human resource planners have warned that Canada, like much of the industrialized world, is facing a nursing shortage (Buchan 1999;Buerhaus 1998;Duffield and O'Brien-Pallas 2002;O'Brien-Pallas and Baumann 1999).Concerns for a global shortage of registered nurses (RNs) are aggravated by the increasing size and proportion of elderly populations, healthcare system restructuring, changing work environments and competition from other career opportunities for potential nursing school applicants.Although the number of RNs employed in nursing in Canada has generally increased over time

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