In this article, the author outlines an approach to marketing planning for radically new products, disruptive or discontinuous innovations that change the dimensionality of the consumer decision. The planning process begins with an extensive situation analysis. The factors identified in the situation analysis are woven into the economic webs surrounding the new product. The webs are mapped into Bayesian networks that can be updated as events unfold and used to simulate the impact that changes in assumptions underlying the web have on the prospects for the new product. The author illustrates this method using a historical case regarding the introduction of videotape recorders by Sony and JVC and a contemporary case of the introduction of electric vehicles. The author provides a complete, numerical example pertaining to a software development project in the Appendix.
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