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A blueprint of ELI: A new method for eliciting subjective probability distributions
16 references·1 citing·36 second hop
A blueprint of ELI: A new method for eliciting subjective probability distributions (1993)A blueprint of ELI: A new method for elic…The effect of choosing on confidence in choice (1990)The effect of choosing on con…Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States (1989)Probability judgment accuracy…Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method (1987)Components of probability jud…Decision analysis and behavioral research (1986)Decision analysis and behavio…State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review (1983)State of the Art—Encoding Sub…Judgement and Choice: The Psychology of Decision. (1983)Judgement and Choice: The Psy…External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score (1982)External correspondence: Deco…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…A progress report on the training of probability assessors (1982)A progress report on the trai…Statistical Methods for Educational and Psychological Research. (1976)Statistical Methods for Educa…Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions (1976)Scoring Rules for Continuous …Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis (1975)Exceptional Paper—Probability…Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions (1975)Cognitive Processes and the A…Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market (1972)Probabilistic forecasting: An…Statistical methods in educational and psychological research. (1954)Statistical methods in educat…Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals (2011)Overconfident for real? Prope…The theory of decision making. (1954)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method (2014)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives (1937)Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules (2010)Forecast Verification (2011)Probabilistic Forecasting (2014)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)The origin of predictable behavior (1983)Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Measuring System Usage: Implications for IS Theory Testing (1995)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities (1996)Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? An Experimental Comparison of Observation and Cheap Talk (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors (2000)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)How we know--and sometimes misjudge--what others know: Imputing one's own knowledge to others. (1999)Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics. (1981)Transformative capacity: Continual structuring by intertemporal technology transfer (1994)Précis of Simple heuristics that make us smart (2000)Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment (1996)
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202 cited
  • 1976Statistical Methods for Educational and Psychological Research.170 cited
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    • 2011Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals3 cited