Factors affecting transport sector CO2emissions growth in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An LMDI decomposition analysis

Abstract

This study determines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector CO2 emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix (FM), modal shift and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients (EC) and transportation energy intensity (EI). The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation EI are the principal factors driving transport sector CO2 emission growth in the countries considered. While economic growth is responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO2 emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay, the transportation EI effect is driving CO2 emissions in Bolivia, the Caribbean, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Other Latin America, Panama and Paraguay. Both economic activity (EA) and EI effects are found responsible for transport sector CO2 emissions growth in the rest of the Latin American countries. In order to limit CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in LAC countries, decoupling of the growth of CO2 emissions from economic growth is necessary; this can be done through policy instruments to promote fuel switching, modal shifting and reductions in transport sector EI. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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