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Model uncertainty, thick modelling and the predictability of stock returns
16 references·16 citing·38 second hopsampled
Model uncertainty, thick modelling and the predictability of stock returns (2005)Model uncertainty, thick modelling and th…Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven‐country data set (2004)Combination forecasts of outp…Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models (2001)Tests of equal forecast accur…Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns (2001)Consumption, Aggregate Wealth…Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable (2000)Investing for the Long Run wh…On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset‐Allocation Perspective (1996)On the Predictability of Stoc…Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance (1995)Predictability of Stock Retur…Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models (1995)Likelihood-Based Inference in…Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Comparing Predictive AccuracyA Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance (1992)A Simple Nonparametric Test o…Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots (1990)Inference in Linear Time Seri…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Combining forecasts: A review…The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors (1988)The Dividend-Price Ratio and …Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends (1988)Stock Prices, Earnings, and E…Dividend yields and expected stock returns (1988)Dividend yields and expected …The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors (1986)The Dividend-Price Ratio and …Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets (1986)Predicting returns in the sto…Forecasting crude oil futures market returns: A principal component analysis combination approach (2022)Forecasting crude oil futures…Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance (2019)Forecaster Overconfidence and…Which Artificial Intelligence Algorithm Better Predicts the Chinese Stock Market? (2018)Which Artificial Intelligence…Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices (2018)Forecasting global stock mark…Financial Markets Prediction with Deep Learning (2018)Financial Markets Prediction …Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations (2016)Optimal Portfolio Choice Unde…Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination (2016)Model Confidence Sets and for…Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns (2016)Getting the most out of macro…The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability (2015)The financial econometrics of…On the efficiency of the gold market: Results of a real-time forecasting approach (2014)On the efficiency of the gold…How Predictable is the Chinese Stock Market (2011)How Predictable is the Chines…Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting (2009)Freedom of Choice in Macroeco…Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns (2007)Economic and financial crises…Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia (2007)Diverse Beliefs and Time Vari…REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICS (2005)REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICSModel Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management (2005)Model Averaging and Value-at-…CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root (1981)An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients (1989)The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums (1991)Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia (2009)Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example. (1974)The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)25 years of time series forecasting (2006)Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations (2006)Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root (1979)Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing (1987)Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors (1988)Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes (1995)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work (1970)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets (1990)Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression (1988)ARCH modeling in finance (1992)A five-factor asset pricing model (2014)MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY (1990)Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models (1998)Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration (1999)Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships (2001)Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations (1982)Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models (1991)Presidential Address: Discount Rates (2011)The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies (2011)Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? (1980)Does the Stock Market Overreact? (1985)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics (2003)Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models do Provide Accurate Forecasts (1998)A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction (2007)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)
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References

  • 1994Comparing Predictive Accuracy5,495 cited
  • 1995Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models5,336 cited
  • 1988The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors3,784 cited
  • 1988Dividend yields and expected stock returns3,574 cited
  • 1990Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots2,561 cited
  • 1988Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends2,457 cited
  • 1986The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors2,425 cited
  • 2001Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns2,187 cited
  • 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography2,170 cited
  • 1986Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets1,715 cited
  • 2000Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable1,372 cited
  • 2001Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models1,178 cited
  • 2004Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven‐country data set1,138 cited
  • 1995Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance1,034 cited
  • 1992A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance897 cited

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  • 1996On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset‐Allocation Perspective730 cited
  • Cited by

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    • 2018Financial Markets Prediction with Deep Learning66 cited
    • 2016Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination65 cited
    • 2016Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations64 cited
    • 2005REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICS61 cited
    • 2018Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices58 cited
    • 2007Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia48 cited
    • 2016Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns43 cited
    • 2019Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance43 cited
    • 2009Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting40 cited
    • 2015The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability34 cited
    • 2005Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management34 cited
    • 2007Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns30 cited
    • 2011How Predictable is the Chinese Stock Market30 cited