Evolution of ARMA Demand in Supply Chains

Xiaolong Zhang

86 citations0/0 files storedManufacturing & Service Operations Management

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Supply Chain and Inventory Management Quality and Supply Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

This paper shows that an ARMA demand generates an ARMA order history when ordering decisions are made based on an order-up-to policy. The order history preserves the autoregressive structure of the demand and transforms its moving average structure according to a simple algorithm. We apply this ARMA-in-ARMA-out property to examine the evolution of the demand signal in supply chains. Its practical implications are discussed in the context of quantifying the bullwhip effect, coordinating forecasting, and evaluating information sharing.

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References

1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1997Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect 2009Time series analysis forecasting and control 2000The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain 2000Foundations of Inventory Management 2000Supply Chain Inventory Management and the Value of Shared Information 2000Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information 2001The Effect of Collaborative Forecasting on Supply Chain Performance

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2013An improved demand forecasting method to reduce bullwhip effect in supply chains 2018Revisiting the value of information sharing in two-stage supply chains 2007Is there a benefit to sharing market sales information? Linking theory and practice 2008The value of coordination in a two-echelon supply chain 2010Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes 2006Characterization of the Bullwhip Effect in Linear, Time-Invariant Supply Chains: Some Formulae and Tests

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