Article1999

How are base-rates used, when they are used: a comparison of additive and Bayesian models of base-rate use

75 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Behavioral Decision Making

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

Previous research has uncovered many conditions that encourage base-rate use. The present research investigates how base-rates are used when conditions are manipulated to encourage their use in the lawyer/engineer paradigm. To examine the functional form of the response to base-rate, a factorial design was employed in which both base-rate and the individuating information were varied within-subject. We compared the performance of several models of base-rate use, including a model that allows base-rate and individuating information to be combined in a strictly additive fashion, and a model which presumes that respondents use Bayes' Rule in forming their judgments. Results from 1493 respondents showed that the additive model is a stronger predictor of base-rate use than any other model considered, suggesting that the base-rate and individuating information are processed independently in the lawyer/engineer paradigm. A possible mechanism for this finding is discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability 1973On the psychology of prediction.1995How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats.1993When More Pain Is Preferred to Less: Adding a Better End 1980The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments 1996The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges 1977Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction.1988Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable.

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