Sino-Indian power preponderance in maritime Asia: a (re-)source of conflict in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea

Abstract

Since the late 1950s, Sino-Indian relations have been tense and marked by rivalry for regional supremacy. Complex border disputes, which escalated into war between the former ‘bhai-bhai’, staged the first round of their increasingly fierce rivalry. The second round followed suit within the structural framework of the Cold War when India sided with the Soviet Union while China partnered with Pakistan and later the USA. The changing post-Cold War power structure in Asia opened the third round of intensifying Sino-Indian supremacy competition, underlined by conflicting resource interests. Emerging arenas of competition are the seas between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea – areas with significant hydrocarbon resources and vital lanes of international trade. Using Lateral Pressure theory, this article argues that maritime Asia ranks high in Beijing's and New Delhi's strategic calculations and because both emerging powers increasingly interfere in the other's maritime backyard, these seas are becoming potential arenas of military escalations.

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