Routine Activity Theory And The Risk Of Rape: Analyzing Ten Years Of National Crime Survey Data

Abstract

This analysis applies routine activity theory to the risk of rape, using 10 years (1973-82) of NCS data. In addition to univariate analysis describing characteristics of the victimization itself, bivariate and multivariate (discriminant) analyses are employed to assess the risk of rape, comparing 762 rape and attempted rape victims with 2,523 randomly selected non-rape victims. Most characteristics concerning the rape incident itself (e.g., time of day and season) were consistent with routine activity theory. However, the place of occurrence was not. Additionally, discriminant analysis showed that marital status, age, family income, and the number of living units per structure appear to be the strongest predictors of the risk of rape. Unlike most prior research, race was not a factor in the risk of rape, although race was correlated with those factors influencing the risk of rape. Given the fundamental level of these predictor variables, the likelihood of affecting the level of rape through policy appears limited.

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