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The ‘Heuristics and Biases’ Bias in Expert Elicitation

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References

1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases28,742 cited
1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
1982Judgment under Uncertainty8,238 cited
1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
1972Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness4,876 cited
1982Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution4,616 cited
1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.3,990 cited
1996The empirical case for two systems of reasoning.3,855 cited
1983Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases3,812 cited
1971Belief in the law of small numbers.3,244 cited
1956Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments2,974 cited
1995How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats.2,131 cited
1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
1996On the reality of cognitive illusions.1,466 cited
1996

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Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty

1,295 cited

Cited by

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2011Experts, Bayesian Belief Networks, rare events and aviation risk estimates56 cited
2011Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique51 cited
2014Judgment and Decision-Making40 cited
2012A Behavioral Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Managing Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployments36 cited
2020Developments in Demographic Forecasting34 cited
2012Judgment and Decision Making32 cited
2020Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions16 cited