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Existing theories of revolution are briefly presented and critiqued. Building on recent work, a new model is introduced in which the key variables are the effects of dependent development on social structure, the exclusionary nature of repressive, personalistic dictatorships, the elaboration of political cultures of resistance, and a dual crisis consisting of a simultaneous economic downturn and an "opening" in the world-system. The combination of these necessary and sufficient conditions predicts the outbreak of a successful social revolution. The model is then applied to the similar cases of Iran and Nicaragua and contrasted with the negative case of El Salvador.
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