Urban and travel changes in the greater Toronto area and the transferability of trip‐generation models

Abstract

This paper discusses the important urban and travel changes in the Greater Toronto Area between 1964 and 1986, and reports the findings of a study into the temporal transferability of home‐based trip generation models, estimated on 1964 data, and applied in prediction on 1986 survey data. Changes in urban structure include: a decline in average household size; decentralisation in population and employment; a change in household composition, reflected by an increase in the following: number of working members, household‐vehicle ownership, and number of household‐members licenced to drive; an increase in the average number of trips made per person and per household, notwithstanding the decline in average household size; an increase in car‐use and a decline in the average vehicle occupancy. Disaggregate measures of transferability indicate the transferred 1964 home‐based trip‐production models provide some useful information on trip‐making in 1986. Regional forecasts, however, show most 1964‐models have significant prediction bias, particularly for non‐work‐trips. Poor transferability of 1964 non‐work trip‐production models is not entirely attributable to transfer‐bias.

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