A Band Spectral Analysis of Exports and Economic Growth in the United States

H. Sönmez Ateşoğlu · Jon R. Vilasuso

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Global trade and economics Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Growth and Productivity

Abstract

This paper examines the role of exports in aggregate economic growth in the United States using band spectral regression. The findings reveal a predictable relationship between long‐run frequency components of real export growth and real GDP growth over the post‐Bretton Woods period of flexible exchange rates. The study fails to uncover a significant relationship between long‐run frequency components of the terms of trade and real output. Overall, the findings support the export‐led growth hypothesis, and dismiss long‐run movements in the terms of trade as an important determinant of real output growth.

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