Quantifying Credit Risk I: Default Prediction

Abstract

Until the 1990s, corporate credit analysis was viewed as an art rather than a science because analysts lacked a way to adequately quantify absolute levels of default risk. In the past decade, however, a revolution in credit-risk measurement has taken place. The evidence from this research presents a compelling case that the conceptual approach pioneered by Fischer Black, Robert Merton, and Myron Scholes provides a powerful practical basis for measuring credit risk. “Quantifying Credit Risk II: Debt Valuation” shows that their approach provides superior explanations of secondary-market debt prices.

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