The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application

Jiří Mazurek · Elena Mielcová

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

We propose a new quantitative recession magnitude scale for measuring recessions' magnitudes ('strength') derived from GDP growth rates during a recession and its duration. Furthermore, we introduce a qualitative scale with four recession categories: minor, major, severe and ultra, where the categories are defined by the magnitude scale. We use both scales to evaluate several well known economic recessions of the 20th and the 21st centuries. We have found that the Great Depression in 1929-1933 and recessions in Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s belong to ultra recessions, while the recent 2007-2009 financial crisis falls mainly into major (EU and Japan) and severe (USA) category.

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References

2004A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications 2002Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation 2006Journal of Applied Econometrics 1987The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity 1990The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression 1948Measuring Business Cycles.2000Essays on the Great Depression 1999Avoiding Default: The Role of Credit in the Consumption Collapse of 1930

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