The J-curve effect and US agricultural and industrial trade

Khosrow Doroodian · Roy Boyd

65 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global trade and economics Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

This paper examines the J-curve hypothesis for US agricultural and manufactured goods, using the Shiller lag model. The results support the J-curve effect for agricultural goods, but not for manufactured goods. These findings explain why many studies in the literature fail to support the J-curve phenomenon. There are two explanations for these findings: (1) the aggregation bias of data that combine both agricultural and manufactured goods and (2) the country under study is often an industrial nation like the US or Japan with a high proportion of manufactured goods in both exports and imports.

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References

1978Specification Tests in Econometrics 1963Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates 1962Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates 1965The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures 1962Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates (Politiques finacierieures interieures avec un systeme de taux de change fixe et avec un systeme de taux de change fluctuant) (Politica financiera interna bajo sistemas de tipos de cambio fijos o de tipos de cambio fluctuantes)1977The monetary approach to the balance of payments 1989Is there a J-curve?1976How Far Can We Push The "Law of One Price"?

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