New Estimates of Undocumented Mexican Migration and the Probability of Apprehension

Douglas S. Massey · Audrey Singer

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Migration and Labor Dynamics Migration, Refugees, and Integration Migration, Health, Geopolitics, Historical Geography

Abstract

Using a new source of data, we estimate the probability of apprehension among Mexican migrants attempting to cross into the United States without documents. Over the period 1965-1989 we found an average apprehension probability of .35, confirming earlier estimates. We then applied annual probabilities to estimate the gross volume of undocumented Mexican migration and adjusted these figures to derive estimates of the net undocumented inflow.

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References

1994Continuities in Transnational Migration: An Analysis of Nineteen Mexican Communities 1993Inside the State: The Bracero Program, Immigration, and the I.N.S.1992Mexican Migration to the United States: A Critical Review 1987The Ethnosurvey in Theory and Practice 1992Stemming the tide? Assessing the deterrent effects of the immigration reform and control act 1994Migradollars: The remittances and savings of Mexican migrants to the USA 1991Undocumented Migration to the United States: IRCA and the Experience of the 1980s.1992Still the golden door: the Third World comes to America

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1998The Social Process of Undocumented Border Crossing among Mexican Migrants 2014Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans 2013Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010 2011US Border Enforcement and the Net Flow of Mexican Illegal Migration 2009Surveying Migrant Households: A Comparison of Census-Based, Snowball and Intercept Point Surveys

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