Disaster devastation of US communities: long-term demographic consequences

Abstract

This paper describes demographic changes resulting from devastating natural disasters in which at least half of the community's structures suffered major damage or total destruction. Considering 92 US communities that suffered disasters (mainly from hurricanes, river flooding, and tornadoes) between 1992 and 2008, locations that were already experiencing declining populations before their disaster were most likely to experience large post-disaster population losses. Communities suffering severe flooding were most likely to lose over a third of their population. Population movement typically occurred regardless of whether the community formally relocated. Small communities were particularly at risk of losing population following destruction, particularly when they lacked schools. Communities with higher home vacancy rates before their devastation were significantly more likely to experience large population declines. Wealthier communities and those located nearer metropolitan cities were most likely to retain their populations following major destruction, yet overall pre-disaster home values and median incomes in the communities were well below national averages. Race and Hispanic population were not significantly related to post-disaster population change in the overall study.

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