A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK

Robert F. McNown · Cristóbal Ridao-Cano

20 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics

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Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics Family Dynamics and Relationships Labor market dynamics and wage inequality

Abstract

Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1979Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root 1991A Treatise on the Family 1979Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root 1995Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models 1988Some recent development in a concept of causality 1973A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior 1991Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems

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