Article2013

HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences

Abstract

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.

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References

1998Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia 1967Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations.1967Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations 1968Demography of Tropical Africa 2004Mortality in China 1964–2000 2001A Guide to Global Population Projections 1987Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China 2007Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

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