The Sustainability of Export-Led Growth: The Singaporean Experience

Abstract

This paper revisits the highly debated export-led growth hypothesis in a number of different ways using Singapore as a case study. First, the hypothesis is tested in terms of labor and total factor productivity growth and this provides a means of transmission via which exports can affect or be affected by GDP growth. Considering the impact of imports on GDP growth and productivity growth serve a similar purpose. The robustness of the relationships is checked using two different models given by a multivariate error correction model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality tests. These results have major implications and are necessary to reassess the effectiveness of trade policy as a strategy for economic development.

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