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Sources of bias in the prediction of future events
8 references·16 citing·38 second hop
Sources of bias in the prediction of future events (1978)Sources of bias in the prediction of futu…Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Theory of games and economic …The Dependability of Behavioral Measurements: Theory of Generalizability for Scores and Profiles. (1974)The Dependability of Behavior…The Dependability of Behavioral Measurements: Theory of Generalizability for Scores and Profiles (1974)The Dependability of Behavior…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Statistical Principles in Experimental Design (1964)Statistical Principles in Exp…Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Statistical principles in exp…Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (1954)Exposition of a New Theory on…The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1945)The Theory of Games and Econo…Motivation as a Function of Expectancy and Incentive (2018)Motivation as a Function of E…Motivation durch Erwartung und Anreiz (2010)Motivation durch Erwartung un…Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters (2008)Evaluating a three-dimensiona…Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment (2007)Reliability and Validity in E…Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity (2006)Sensation Seeking, Overconfid…Evaluative Aspects of Creative Thought: Errors in Appraising the Implications of New Ideas (2006)Evaluative Aspects of Creativ…Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction (2004)Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO O…The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight (2004)The over-optimism among exper…Experts and foresight: review and experience (2004)Experts and foresight: review…The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts (2000)The accuracy of European grow…The role and validity of judgment in forecasting (1996)The role and validity of judg…The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques (1996)The impact of task characteri…Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation (1996)Confidence and Uncertainty in…On between-subjects versus within-subjects comparisons in testing utility theory (1988)On between-subjects versus wi…Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor (1986)Subjective confidence in fore…Psychology of rumor reconsidered. (1980)Psychology of rumor reconside…Belief in the law of small numbers. 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(1980)Bridging the gap between foresight and market research: Integrating methods to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology (2007)Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results (2011)ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge (2011)Back-Translation for Cross-Cultural Research (1970)Intraclass correlations: Uses in assessing rater reliability. (1979)A 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (1996)Self-Concept: Validation of Construct Interpretations (1976)Forming inferences about some intraclass correlation coefficients. (1996)The Handbook of Research Synthesis and Meta-Analysis (2019)Toward a positive theory of consumer choice (1980)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Non-cooperative games (1989)Frontiers in Group Dynamics (1947)A Method for Evaluating the Distribution of Power in a Committee System (1954)Measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal (1986)On assuring valid measures for theoretical models using survey data (2003)Sustainable Supply Chains: Governance Mechanisms to Greening Suppliers (2012)An Introduction to Network Psychometrics: Relating Ising Network Models to Item Response Theory Models (2017)Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects (2002)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. 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this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1962Statistical principles in experimental design.27,141 cited
  • 2019Theory of games and economic behavior16,630 cited
  • 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
  • 1964Statistical Principles in Experimental Design8,058 cited
  • 1945The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior5,134 cited
  • 1954Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk2,787 cited
  • 1974The Dependability of Behavioral Measurements: Theory of Generalizability for Scores and Profiles1,819 cited
  • 1974The Dependability of Behavioral Measurements: Theory of Generalizability for Scores and Profiles.598 cited

Cited by

  • 2006Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity196 cited
  • 2004The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight196 cited
  • 1980Psychology of rumor reconsidered.186 cited
  • 2006Evaluative Aspects of Creative Thought: Errors in Appraising the Implications of New Ideas144 cited
  • 2000The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts133 cited
  • 1996The role and validity of judgment in forecasting125 cited
  • 1996The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques

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117 cited
  • 2004Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction77 cited
  • 2018Motivation as a Function of Expectancy and Incentive71 cited
  • 1996Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation62 cited
  • 2008Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters48 cited
  • 2007Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment47 cited
  • 1988On between-subjects versus within-subjects comparisons in testing utility theory42 cited
  • 1986Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor40 cited
  • 2004Experts and foresight: review and experience39 cited
  • 2010Motivation durch Erwartung und Anreiz36 cited