Cumulative advantage and success-breeds-success: The value of time pattern analysis

Abstract

Many different theoretical models can be made to fit empirical informetric data. For the case of the distribution of papers across authors, the Success-Breeds-Success or Cumulative Advantage model is a popular candidate. This article shows that examination of the time pattern of production allows independent evaluation of the component processes that generate the distribution of papers across authors. Specifically for inventors, the Cumulative Advantage model for increasing rate of production with experience is not confirmed. Furthermore, the distribution of individual production is Poisson and the distribution of the rate of production across the population fits the Gamma distribution. Thus, the non-uniform giftedness model is more appropriate for inventors. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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