A Spatial Autocorrelation Model of the Effects of Population Density on Fertility

Abstract

The relationship between fertility and population density that has been demonstrated with aggregate data is discussed and reexamined here. We argue that models which exclude considerations of spatial processes are incomplete and that therefore parameter estimates for such models are misleading. We then develop a model which incorporates spatial autocorrelation and reanalyze data from one well-known study of the effects of density on fertility using our model. The results show that with one exception the effects of density on fertility are trivial a finding that is quite different from previous research. We conclude that spatial mechanisms are an important consideration in the modeling of social processes that involve geographically defined units. (excerpt)

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