Don’t bet on it! Wagering as a measure of awareness in decision making under uncertainty.

Abstract

Can our decisions be guided by unconscious or implicit influences? According to the somatic marker hypothesis, emotion-based signals can guide our decisions in uncertain environments outside awareness. Postdecision wagering, in which participants make wagers on the outcomes of their decisions, has been recently proposed as an objective and sensitive measure of conscious content. In 5 experiments we employed variations of a classic decision-making assessment, the Iowa Gambling Task, in combination with wagering in order to investigate the role played by unconscious influences. We examined the validity of postdecision wagering by comparing it with alternative measures of conscious knowledge, specifically confidence ratings and quantitative questions. Consistent with a putative role for unconscious influences, in Experiments 2 and 3 we observed a lag between choice accuracy and the onset of advantageous wagering. However, the lag was eliminated by a change in the wagering payoff matrix (Experiment 2) and by a switch from a binary wager response to either a binary or a 4-point confidence response (Experiment 3), and wagering underestimated awareness compared to explicit quantitative questions (Experiments 1 and 4). Our results demonstrate the insensitivity of postdecision wagering as a direct measure of conscious knowledge and challenge the claim that implicit processes influence decision making under uncertainty.

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