Developmental Change in Subjective Probability during Adolescence

Yoshiaki Nakajima · Hirohiko Ohta

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Probability and Statistical Research Statistics Education and Methodologies

Abstract

The developmental change in subjective probability during adolescence, an important period for establishing the probability concept, was investigated. 75 Japanese adolescents, from 12 to 23 yr. of age, were asked to make probability judgments for a lottery under 15 conditions. Analysis showed that with increase in age their subjective probability came closer to the objective probability. Discussion of these results took into consideration recent studies on the development of the concept of probability.

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References

1976The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children 1987Understanding conditional probabilities 1983The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability 1982How Adolescents Combine Probabilities

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