ON BRÓDY'S CONJECTURE: THEORY, FACTS AND FIGURES ABOUT INSTABILITY OF THE US ECONOMY

Theodore Mariolis · Lefteris Tsoulfidis

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Economic Theory and Policy Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Bródy's conjecture regarding the instability of economies is submitted to an empirical test using input–output flow tables of varying size for the US economy, for the benchmark years 1997 and 2002, as well as for the period 1998–2011. The results obtained using input–output tables of various dimensions lend support to the view of increasing instability (in the sense of Bródy) of the US economy over the period considered. Furthermore, our analysis shows that only a few vertically integrated industries are enough to shape the behaviour of the entire economy in the case of a disturbance. These results may usefully be contrasted with those derived in a parallel literature on aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic ‘idiosyncratic’ shocks.

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