Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael J. Smithson · Thomas Bartos · Kazuhisa Takemura

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Multi-Criteria Decision Making Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

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References

1992Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity 1994Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.1982Judgments of and by representativeness 1995Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off.1985The center and range of the probability interval as factors affecting ambiguity preferences 1995Decision making under ignorance: Arguing with yourself 1994Where is the fault in fault trees?

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