Purchasing power parity, nonlinearity and chaos

Apostolos Serletis · Periklis Gogas

44 citations0/0 files storedApplied Financial Economics

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Abstract

This study contrasts the (apparent) random walk behaviour of the real exchange rate to chaotic dynamics, using (US) dollar-based real exchange rates for 17 OECD countries (covering the period 1957:1–1995:4). Tests for deterministic noisy chaos are carried out using the Nychka, Ellner, Gallant and McCaffrey (1992) test for positivity of the maximum Lyapunov exponent. There is evidence of nonlinear chaotic dynamics in seven real exchange rate series, suggesting that real exchange rate movements might not be really random.

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References

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