On the concept of immediate probabilities

Abstract

The problem of decision making under doubt is described. the concept of immediate probabilities is introduced. It is seen as a modification of typical probabilistic knowledge with information about the payoffs, mediated through dispositional information (optimism/pessimism), resulting in a modified formulation of an agents perception of the probabilities in effect in the current decision. We use the Dempster rule of combination to help obtain an expression for these probabilities. We show how immediate probabilities allows us to explain the Allais paradox. A number of properties of these probabilities are described. the strategic use of these probabilities are explored as a means for effecting other people's decisions. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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