ESTIMATING QUARTERLY GDP DATA FOR THE SOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND NATIONS

Willie Lahari · Alfred A. Haug · Arlene Garces‐Ozanne

11 citations0/0 files storedThe Singapore Economic Review

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Growth and Productivity Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Time series analyses generally rely on having a relatively high frequency of consistent and reliable data to work with. However for many South Pacific Island Nations (SPINs), data on macroeconomic series, like GDP, are typically available only annually from the 1980s onwards. This paper empirically estimates quarterly GDP data from annual series using the modified Chow and Lin (1971) approach. We link available annual GDP series for select SPINs with GDP-related series that are available quarterly. We deem that our quarterly estimates of GDP are more consistent and reliable compared to estimates obtained through less sophisticated methods of univariate interpolation.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1988Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors 1990MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE ON COINTEGRATION — WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 2001LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power 1990Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots 1999Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration 1971Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series 1995Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities

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