CHANGING PATTERNS OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: The Case of Canada Under NAFTA

Abstract

Recently, the issue of regional and international trade flows has attracted increased attention. Papers by Helliwell and McCallum have stressed the importance of national borders in determining the nature of Canadian economic activity even when adjustments are made for distance and trade barriers. This article, using Provincial Economic Accounts data, estimates an almost ideal demand system to explain the interprovincial and international flow of goods, accounting for changes in relative prices and other factors that have arisen since the formation of NAFTA. The results allow conclusions to be drawn with respect to the importance of geographical proximity to the U.S. border, the influence of price and income elasticities, and the nature of the industrial/resource endowment mix of the province. The relevant elasticities allow for the examination changes to the internal and external trade patterns and to the differences which have developed in the various regions of Canada.

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