Forecast Rationality in Small Firms

Abstract

A large sample of small firms was longitudinally surveyed to investigate the rationality of revenue forecasts made within such firms. The analysis helps to address the dearth of research investigating owner/managers' forecasts of growth in firms and their degree of accuracy. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results do not support the contention that forecasts made by the managers of small firms are optimistic. Although systematic overestimation was not found, managers did tend to make forecasts that were generally too extreme, and tended to overextrapolate previous growth. These results are consistent with propositions that overconfidence biases and representative heuristics influence the revenue forecasts made in small firms.

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