A Penalized Maximum Likelihood Approach for the Ranking of College Football Teams Independent of Victory Margins

David Mease

59 citations0/0 files storedThe American Statistician

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Abstract

This article introduces a penalized maximum likelihood approach for ranking all NCAA Division 1-A college football teams. The model does not consider margin of victory and is based solely on win/loss data. Despite the simplicity, the model leads to rankings which exhibit greater agreement with expert opinion (i.e., AP and Coaches polls) than the models historically and currently used by the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). The model can be implemented using standard statistical software packages.

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1952RANK ANALYSIS OF INCOMPLETE BLOCK DESIGNS 1964The Method of Paired Comparisons.1927The method of paired comparisons for social values.1993The Perron–Frobenius Theorem and the Ranking of Football Teams 1977The Use of Linear-Model Methodology to Rate High School or College Football Teams 1994The Home-Court Advantage: How Large Is It, and Does It Vary from Team to Team?2003The Selection or Seeding of College Basketball or Football Teams for Postseason Competition

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