What Are the Determinants of Delayed Childbearing and Permanent Childlessness in the United States?

David E. Bloom · James Trussell

23 citations0/0 files storedNational Bureau of Economic Research

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Family Dynamics and Relationships Reproductive Health and Contraception Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena.The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates.Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970's were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness.The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among black women than among non-black women, (b) education and labor force participation are important determinants of delayed childbearing, (c) the influence of education and labor force participation on delayed childbearing seems to be increasing across cohorts, (d) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth, (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts, (f) race has an insignificant effect on childlessness, and (g) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly high levels for the most recent cohorts.

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References

1971Age Patterns of Marriage 1980Education and Fertility: Implications for the Roles Women Occupy 1976Intended Childbearing and Labor Force Participation of Young Women: Insights from Nonrecursive Models 1981The Current Population Survey: Design and Methodology.1979Voluntary Childlessness:1983Social Determinants of Age at First Birth 1979Is Zero Preferred? American Attitudes toward Childlessness in the 1970s 1982Voluntary childlessness: A review of the evidence and implications

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1987Soziale Herkunft, Bildung und das Alter bei der Geburt des ersten Kindes 2021Childlessness Trends in Twentieth-Century Europe: Limited Link to Growing Educational Attainment 1985Marriage Patterns in the United States 1990Familie und Geburtenentwicklung

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