The Political Context of Conflict and Cooperation Over International River Basins

Abstract

Along with land and air, water is the most vital human resource. It also is scarce, maldistributed and often shared internationally. Hence, it is frequently the focus of serious conflict among nations, especially the riparians of transnational rivers. Population growth and economic development exacerbate these conjlictual tendencies. A predictive theory of conflict and cooperation over transnational rivers is urgently needed. This article presents a power-analytic framework and some initial steps toward such a theory. After explaining the basic concepts of conflict and cooperation, it briefly examines the contributions of international law and the best known typologies of conflict, presenting reasons for their inadequacy The most prominent models of conflict behavior are also examined and their contributions noted along with their overall incapacity. A few direct but incomplete attempts at political modelling of transnational river conflicts are similarly discussed. The remainder of the article sketches the applicability of a power-analytic approach to transnational river systems. A comprehensive treatment of power analysis is impossible in such brief compass, but several key considerations are used to indicate its utility. These include analysis of the actors involved, relevant motivationalfactors, perceptual (cognitive) processes, andfeatures of power structures. Examples from the Middle East illustrate these critical analytic distinctions.

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