PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION UNCERTAINTY AND COMMON STOCK RETURNS IN THE UNITED STATES

Jinliang Li · Jeffery A. Born

178 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Financial Research

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Market Dynamics and Volatility COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

Abstract

Abstract There is substantial evidence on the influence of political outcomes on the business cycle and stock market. We further hypothesize that uncertainty about the outcome of a U.S. presidential election should be reflected in pre‐election common stock returns. Prior research pools returns based on the party of the winning candidate, assuming that the outcome of the election is known a priori. We use candidate preference (i.e., polling) data to construct a measure of election uncertainty. We find that if the election does not have a candidate with a dominant lead, stock market volatility (risk) and average returns rise.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 178 citations exist upstream.

References

1977Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy 2003The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market 1988Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984 1967Public finance in democratic process 2000Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence 1985Predictable events and excess returns: The case of dividend announcements

Cited by

2012U.S. Presidential Elections and Implied Volatility: The Role of Political Uncertainty 2011Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia 2020CEOs’ experience of the Great Chinese Famine and accounting conservatism 2019Financial stress dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from the Arab Spring 2020Political uncertainty and firm entry: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing industries 2023The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia 2019Safe havens in the face of Presidential election uncertainty: A comparison between Bitcoin, oil and precious metals

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.